Quarterly economic outlook report is mixed for Fayetteville MSA
By Staff Report, posted Oct 12, 2026 on BizFayetteville.com
The Lloyd V. Hackley Chair for the Study of Capitalism and Free Enterprise at Fayetteville State University’s Broadwell College of Business and Economics, Dr. Jeremy Jackson, has released the latest edition of his quarterly economic outlook report.
The report highlights recent trends in key economic indicators, including wages and salaries, gross domestic output, unemployment and local housing indexes. Alongside visualizations of the latest data, it presents forecasts through the second quarter of 2028, offering insight into potential economic developments. The full report and future releases are available on the Hackley Chair website. The website also now features a link to an interactive data dashboard, allowing readers to explore historical economic trends and forecasts in greater detail.
“The national and state economies continue to be strong, and the outlook for the Charlotte and Raleigh metro areas is positive. In the Fayetteville metro area, unemployment is lower than it was a year ago and wages are forecast to grow, but the shrinking labor force is something to watch,” said Dr. Jackson in a press release.
Executive Summary of the Q3 2026 Report
The outlook for the U.S. economy remains positive. GDP and consumer spending are expected to continue growing steadily, and the unemployment rate is forecast to keep declining. Net investment and corporate profits are expected to grow through 2027. Core inflation has eased slightly, and the yield spread has widened to its highest level since 2022.
The North Carolina economy continues to perform well. Total wages and salaries and gross state product are forecast to keep growing, and the unemployment rate is expected to continue falling. The labor force has declined over the past year but is forecast to recover in 2027. Tax collections continue to follow their historic cyclical pattern.
The outlook for the Fayetteville Metropolitan Area is mixed. The unemployment rate is below its level a year ago and is forecast to continue its downward trend, and wages are forecast to grow slowly. However, the labor force has fallen nearly 4% over the past year and is forecast to continue declining into 2027. The housing index is forecast to ease slightly from its current level.
Key Points
o The economic outlook for the national economy is positive. GDP, Consumption, Net Investment and Profits are expected to grow, while the unemployment rate is expected to decline.
o The outlook for North Carolina is positive, with growing wages, salaries and gross state product and a falling unemployment rate.
o The outlook for the Fayetteville Metropolitan Area is mixed.
o Wages in Fayetteville are forecast to grow slowly through 2027.
o The Fayetteville unemployment rate is lower than a year ago and is expected to continue its downward trend.
o The Fayetteville labor force has declined nearly 4% over the past year and is forecast to continue declining into 2027.
o The Fayetteville housing index is forecast to ease slightly from its current level.
A full copy of the report can be found here: www.uncfsu.edu/economicoutlook
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