It was a great morning at the Cape Fear Botanical Garden as the journal hosted its first Power Breakfast of 2024.

Gerald Cohen, Chief Economist at UNC’s Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise, presented an economic forecast for the rest of the year on a national, state and local level. While the prediction is that the U.S. economy will experience a mild and short-lived recession in 2024, Fayetteville is positioned to see a more positive outcome than other areas of the country.

“We expect Fayetteville to grow in 2024 despite recessionary conditions, but it will be a mid-tercile performer of the 150, what we call, extended metro areas, in the United States,” stated Cohen. 

These midsize cities have proven to have a more than midsize impact on the country’s economy. The 150 cities that the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise is studying make up 90 percent of the US economy and 84 percent of the population. 

“84 percent of the population is creating 90 percent of the activity, which means that that 84 percent of the population is more productive than the remaining 14 [percent],” observed Cohen. 

When people think of Fayetteville, NC they think of a military town and they think of Fort Liberty. This military presence has a valuable impact on our area’s economic report.

“If you have a military base in a midsize city, your economy grows a quarter percent faster than  midsize cities that don't. The same is not true for larger cities. Midsize cities are actually less dependent on the US economy as a whole,” explained Cohen. 

Ultimately, uncertainty surrounding geopolitical tensions, the 2024 presidential election, frequent changes to federal interest rates and more are leading to heightened anxiety surrounding our country’s economic climate. 

Fayetteville overall has some great strengths to lean on during these times of turmoil. No one can be certain what the future holds, but our team here at the GFBJ looks forward to keeping our readers informed as we tackle these challenges day by day.